Bitcoin pullback might be imminent as a high-volume H4 pinbar forms near resistance, signaling weakening bullish momentum.
H4 Pinbar Candle with Heavy Volume – Why It Matters
What Does a Pinbar on H4 Indicate?
A pinbar candle with a long wick and small body typically signals a potential reversal. The one just printed on the 4-hour Bitcoin chart appeared near a major resistance level (~$97,000), suggesting sellers are regaining control.
Volume Confirmation – Not Just a Visual Trap
What makes this signal stronger is the volume confirmation. The pinbar was accompanied by even higher volume than the previous bullish engulfing candle, indicating market rejection of higher prices.
On-Chain & CEX Insights: Longs Closed, Shorts Building?
No Obvious Wall, But Whale Behavior Shifts
While current order book data from centralized exchanges (CEX) doesn’t show heavy sell walls or buy support, subtle behavioral changes are detectable. Major traders, often referred to as “whales,” appear to have closed their long positions from the local bottom and are now initiating shorts.
This change in sentiment, while not dramatic on-chain, often precedes price movements, as whales tend to position early before retail traders react.
The Federal Reserve Meeting: What Traders Should Expect
Rates Likely to Stay Flat Implication for Crypto
The upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for early tomorrow (Asia time) is expected to hold rates steady, according to the CME FedWatch tool. While not an outright hawkish stance, this lack of a cut may put pressure on risk assets in the short term.
Bitcoin’s Sensitivity to Macroeconomic Events
Historically, Bitcoin tends to react sharply to Fed-related news. The absence of a dovish surprise might lead to a “sell the news” event, particularly when prices are already extended.
Bitcoin Pullback Scenarios: Bull Trap Before Fed-Driven Drop?
Bull Trap Above $97K Possible
Price could push slightly higher in a liquidity grab (also known as a “stop-loss hunt”) before a pullback begins. This often occurs as traders become overly bullish before key news events, and whales exploit that optimism.
Target Zones for Pullback – Eyes on $93K–94K
A logical area for correction lies in the $93,000–94,000 region, aligning with recent local support zones and Fibonacci retracements. This zone might attract buyers again, especially if the Fed tone is more dovish than expected.
Conclusion – Wait and Watch, Don’t Chase Pumps
While Bitcoin remains in a broader bullish structure, short-term caution is advised due to:
- A high-volume pinbar at resistance
- Changing behavior among large traders
- Imminent macroeconomic uncertainty from the Fed
Discover: Why Is Bitcoin Going Down? Understanding the 2025 BTC Drop
Traders should remain vigilant for false breakouts and consider hedging or taking partial profits ahead of the FOMC announcement.