Bitcoin predicted set for a record-breaking price surge, with market experts anticipating a potential rise to $137,000 by the third quarter of 2025. This forecast relies on macroeconomic liquidity trends and technical chart patterns. Supported by top analysts and market signals, the outcome hinges on the U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) maintaining its liquidity injections into financial markets.
Analyst Titan of Crypto Predicts a Six-Figure Surge
Well-known cryptocurrency analyst Titan of Crypto expects a major breakout for Bitcoin. In a recent X post, the analyst identified a bullish pennant formation on Bitcoin’s daily chart—a pattern often indicating significant upward price movements. Based on this formation, Titan forecasts Bitcoin could hit $137,000 between July and August 2025, establishing a new all-time high.
Titan highlighted that Bitcoin must first break and hold above its 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) to sustain a rally. Currently, Bitcoin faces resistance at key technical levels, including the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMAs. A clear breakout above these thresholds could signal robust bullish momentum, paving the way for Bitcoin to reach six-figure territory again.
Macro Trends Boost Bitcoin’s Potential: $500 Billion in Treasury Liquidity
In addition to technical signals, macroeconomic factors could significantly fuel Bitcoin’s rise. Since February 2025, the U.S. Treasury has injected over $500 billion into markets by reducing its Treasury General Account balance. This move came after the U.S. government hit the $36 trillion debt ceiling on January 2, 2025, prompting the Treasury to use reserve cash to fund operations.
Macroeconomic analyst Tomas pointed out that this reduction has raised net Federal Reserve liquidity to $6.3 trillion, a liquidity surge that could support Bitcoin’s price in the coming months. While some risk assets have shown a limited response, Bitcoin appears increasingly responsive to these capital inflows.
The Treasury General Account’s Impact on Crypto Markets
The Treasury General Account (TGA) acts as the U.S. government’s primary checking account at the Federal Reserve, managing tax collections, bill payments, and other fiscal tasks. When the Treasury lowers the TGA balance, it releases funds into the broader economy, boosting market liquidity.
Tomas explained that the drawdown began on February 12, shortly after the government exhausted “extraordinary measures” to delay hitting the debt ceiling. Since then, the TGA balance has decreased from $842 billion to $342 billion, injecting hundreds of billions into financial markets. By the end of April, this liquidity could climb to $600 billion, potentially growing further if debt ceiling talks extend into the summer.
Tax Season May Slow Momentum, But a Rebound Awaits
While the upcoming tax season might temporarily reduce market liquidity, Tomas anticipates the TGA drawdown will resume in May. If liquidity expansion continues at its current rate through Q3, net market liquidity could reach a multi-year high of $6.6 trillion—a scenario that has historically favored Bitcoin and other digital assets.
Bitcoin’s Alignment with Global Liquidity: Research Shows Strong Link
A study by financial analyst Lyn Alden reveals Bitcoin often serves as a “global liquidity barometer.” Her research indicates Bitcoin moves in tandem with global liquidity trends 83% of the time over any 12-month period, outperforming assets like gold, SPX, and VT in liquidity correlation.
In past cycles, TGA drawdowns in 2022 and 2023 sparked speculative rallies in Bitcoin and altcoins. If this pattern holds, the current liquidity influx could propel Bitcoin upward, especially as investor interest in risk assets grows.
Market Sentiment Varies, But Momentum Builds
Despite the positive outlook, Bitcoin must clear key resistance levels to target $137,000 confidently. Titan of Crypto noted that a daily close above all major EMAs on high-timeframe charts would confirm a momentum shift. Until then, traders closely watch key support zones for signs of consolidation or accumulation.
If Bitcoin sustains above its 200-day EMA and builds volume past resistance, it could attract long-term institutional capital, further driving its ascent. The combination of technical strength and macroeconomic liquidity might create ideal conditions for Bitcoin’s next major rally.
Key Elements Supporting the $137K Bitcoin Forecast
- Technical Formation: Bullish pennant on the daily chart.
- Trend Confirmation: Breakout above the 200-day EMA is crucial.
- Macro Boost: Over $600B TGA drawdown increases liquidity.
- Fed Liquidity: Net levels could hit $6.6 trillion by August.
- Historical Pattern: 83% correlation with global liquidity.
- Investor Activity: Rising speculative capital flows into crypto.
Conclusion: Bitcoin’s Climb to $137K Hinges on Signals and Liquidity
Bitcoin’s potential ascent to $137,000 by Q3 2025 looks increasingly plausible as technical patterns and macroeconomic forces align. However, this target depends on factors like the U.S. Treasury’s continued liquidity injections and Bitcoin’s ability to break through critical resistance levels.
If these conditions align, Bitcoin could surpass its previous peak of $69,000 and establish itself as the leading risk-on asset in a high-liquidity environment.